That Darn Arne -- The Arne Carlson Blog

For years, the public and the media have been pleading for bi-partisan cooperation.  Sometimes it is well to remember that it may be wise to be cautious about what you wish for.  Bi-partisan cooperation may be splendid provided the objectives are clearly in the public’s best interest.  But, what about when that cooperation is focused on self-serving goals, e.g. automatic congressional pay raises, endless fundraising from interests that have business before the government, and that generous practice of political earmarks.

Here in Minnesota, we witnessed a bi-partisan agreement on the budget.  It won great praise from editorial writers, reporters, and political leaders.  Sadly, all too few questioned the quality of that agreement or inquired about the public good.  Politically, all the players got what they wanted.  Governor Pawlenty can skate through the GOP convention without having to deal with a massive financial shortfall that will be announced after the November election.  Legislators, both Democrat and Republican, can campaign for re-election without having to tell voters about the enormous consequences of a multi-billion dollar deficit.

Politically, all the incumbents from both political parties had a lot to gain by this bi-partisan agreement.  But, what about the public?

First of all, consider the size of the likely deficit and enormity of the necessary spending cuts and/or tax hikes.  John Brandl, a former legislator and retired Dean of the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey Institute, estimates the impending shortfall in the $5 billion range.  This may be on the high side, but we can assume it probably will be in the $2 billion to $5 billion range.  Either way the consequences are serious and the true tragedy is that voters will be denied the opportunity to discuss this disaster during the campaign when they have the power to hold the incumbents accountable. 

Again, we should beware of what we wish for.

VP Sweepstakes

Nationally, there has been a significant turnabout in presidential fortunes.  Senator McCain and Senator Obama are now in a statistical dead-heat.  In spite of all the headwinds against the GOP, McCain’s consistent jabs against Obama are effective and now place him in a position to win.  For Obama, he is discovering that what resonated with the more liberal audiences during the primary season is not sitting all that well with a more centrist populace.  Further, those “adjustments” in policy that Obama is making in order to appeal to a less liberal electorate makes him appear to be more like the traditional politician he has criticized.

The result is that the McCain campaign is energized with the realization that they have a legitimate chance of winning and the Obama camp is shaken by the possibility that they could lose.  Assuming both organizations recognize this new reality, it is likely that they are reappraising the vice-presidential situation.

Increasingly, the key states for both candidates are Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and Virginia.  Any VP pick must pass the acid test of being prepared and capable of serving as President.   Secondly, they must in a possible close election make a significant political contribution toward electing the ticket.  On the Democratic side, there are many that pass that test including Senators Bayh, Biden, and Dodd along with Governor Rendell (Pennsylvania) as well as GOP Senator Chuck Hagel.  However, there is no one who would do more to help Obama than Hillary Clinton. Her strengths truly offset Obama’s weaknesses and her appeal is with those Democrats and independents who remain unconvinced about Obama.

On the GOP side, McCain’s field is more limited, but it would appear that Tom Ridge, former Congressman, Governor of Pennsylvania, and head of Homeland Security, and former Governor Mitt Romney would be the most helpful.  Ridge could give McCain a real shot at carrying Pennsylvania and Ohio and appealing to a more moderate electorate.  Romney, the best over-all bet, truly helps McCain in his weakest area and that is the economy.  In addition, he has substantial appeal in Michigan and Colorado and helps stabilize the GOP base.

Stay tuned – there will be a number of ups and downs.

By Arne H. Carlson