Erik's Cloud 9

IT'S A MADHOUSE

So, I thought it would be a cool thing to do to take my 9 year old daughter Eryn to the MOA on Saturday for the grand opening of the American Girl store. Well, I knew it would be chaos (albeit controlled chaos cause I don't think AG fans are the car-tipping type) and I knew there would be quite a line. Well, there were actually TWO lines. One main line and one line to get into the main line - both complete with security gaurds to prevent any line jumping! We got there in a lull and it still took 45 minutes to get to the store's "front porch".

Once inside, wall to wall humanity! ANd the two registers presented MORE lines - the biggest hurdle INSIDE the store. All around us an array of creepy dolls staring at us from inside cardboard boxes or glass display cases, and ALL with very BIG price tags. Of course, besides the initial investment it's all of those "accessories" that really getcha!!! Everywhere I looked there were wide-eyed real girls face to face with wide-eyed plastic girls. To be "fair and balanced" I have to say I was probably the same way when I was 9 walking thru the Dayton's toy department loking at all of those beeautiful yellow Tonka construction trucks!!!

Here's some of the creepiness:

Sea of People

Eryn - hopeful that the pace of the line will pick up!

Yup - a hair salon for dolls!

She reminds me of that doll from THE TWILIGHT ZONE who kept telling Telly Savalas, "I Hate you,,, I'm going to kill you"!!!

Help. Get me out of here. I CAN'T BREATHE!!!

Something Ironic!!!

While driving my Porsche 924S the other day I turned on the heat. Then, wanting to cool off, I slid the temp control bar to cold. It got stuck on the way. I took off the console at home, got the bar back to cool, and still got warm air. So, now I have a car that I drive in the summer and store in the winter that only blows heat - this is gonna be expensive!!!

Live from NEW YORK CITY!!!

Well, later today NBC is flying me to New York so I can do an interview for Dateline. It involves one of those "amazing" pieces of video of an event that I witnessed while working in Iowa in 2005. I was on-the-air doing a weathercast when it happened so it was kind of a "Hindenburg" moment. What happened??? I'll let you know more in the near future - and I'll certainly tell you when it will air.

Off to the Big Apple (from the "Minne-apple"),

Erik

I recently attended the National Weather Association annual meeting and broadcast conference in Louisville, Kentucky where I had the honor of meeting Dave Freeman from KSN-TV in Wichita, Kansas. I also watched him receive the NWA Broadcaster Of The Year award for his coverage of the Greensburg, Kansas tornado.

While looking at the KSN website I found an interesting article by Dave. Enjoy it, and think about it. (FYI, Exploration Place is a Wichita science museum in which KSN operates a television weather studio).

The psychology of storm warnings

By KSN Chief Meteorologist Dave Freeman

Thursday, September 21st, 2006. It is mid-afternoon on a busy severe weather day and we have already had a number of Tornado Warnings in the KSN viewing area and several confirmed tornadoes. Now, things are about to take a turn for the worst.

KSN High Definition Doppler radar is running in the highest resolution mode, capable of seeing features as small as 60 meters, just a bit bigger than half of a football field. I am seeing some rotation in the Doppler display on a storm that is just West of Haysville and moving rapidly Northeast -- right toward Wichita. I have already been on the phone with the National Weather Service Office at Wichita sharing my observation. Now, I am back in front of the magic green wall tracking the storms.

As Exploration Place is open, we have about 20 visitors sitting in the KSN WeatherLab area, watching our coverage. Just after I show the storm on the Southwest side of the metro area and urge caution, the Tornado Warning is issued. There is a dangerous storm moving right up into the City of Wichita. Given what we were seeing on High Definition Doppler Radar, I expected that. What I didn't expect was the lesson I was about to get on the psychology of storm warnings.

Social psychologists study human responses to warnings of impending disasters like dangerous storms. They tell us that people frequently need to hear things more than one time, and they need to "see" the danger for themselves. These steps seem to be necessary before people take the decision to seek shelter. I have attended workshops on this subject at weather conferences and we have taken these lessons into account in designing our severe weather coverage. Now, returning to our story, I see this play out before my very eyes.

As the Tornado Warning is issued, I turn to the gathered audience members at Exploration Place and I say very specifically that the storm is heading right into the heart of the City -- right toward Exploration Place. I show the storm track and say that all visitors need to move to the designated shelter areas. Now bear in mind, these folks have been sitting here watching our coverage. They have seen the storm track showing that the storm is heading right toward us. They have heard me say there is a Tornado Warning and the Exploration Place visitors should move to shelter immediately.

No one moved. Not one person. I was stunned. Caught a bit off guard, I stopped, looked at the audience and said, "Folks I am not kidding. You need to go to shelter NOW!" It was as if the audience members were awakening from a trance. Slowly, a few seemed to shake themselves and people began moving. Exploration Place staff members began ushering people toward the shelters.

A few moments later, the public address system broke in with a warning to all visitors to move to the storm shelter areas immediately. But even at that, a father and son mysteriously wandered into the WeatherLab area some time later -- just as the storm was approaching the downtown -- completely oblivious to what was happening. I had to say again, on the air, that all Exploration Place visitors should be in storm shelters immediately. The father gave me a funny look and left with his son.

This was an amazing series of events for me because it demonstrated so clearly the things we have studied in the KSN WeatherLab about giving effective warnings. It really did take two...three...even four repetitions to convince people to take shelter. And that was in spite of the fact that High Definition Doppler Radar clearly showed the storm rapidly approaching the downtown!

So, the next time you see us doing storm coverage and you notice that we are repeating the information several times over, remember we are doing exactly what the psychologists -- and our experience -- tell us we need to do. By repeating the warning and clearly showing the danger over and over again, we are doing the best we can to make sure that families in the path of danger make that connection and the critical decision to seek shelter.

Dave Freeman
KSN Chief Meteorologist
weatherlab@ksn.com

More on Dave: http://www.ksn.com/aboutksn/bios/weather/3761097.html<
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JUST A TASTE,,,

of things to come over the next few weeks... and months!!! A slushy snow and a continued cold pattern. Okay, so Thursday's temps will seem balmy with the rain, but by Friday we look to get cold again - for a while.

And I guess I can expect MORE of what I saw the other day. The ponds by my house had started to freeze over. Yes. It was the first ICE!. I knelt down and grabbed about a square foot sheet of the first ice. It was about a half inch thick and brilliantly clear (first ice, and all, I guess). Just a few bubbles, but very, very clear.

Morning lows in the week ahead will stay mostly below freezing so if you are seeing ice on a falimilar piece of water,,, expect it to continue to thicken!

So, I guess Ian's backyard rink will be in good shape before you can say "Brrrrrrr"!

Enjoy the scenery,

Erik

Around midnight thru this week (5th - 12th of November) look above the eastern horizon. It's the Taurids Meteor Shower. Although you might usually expect 5-10 bright meteors per hour, this year's might present more numerous but smaller fireballs.

-Let your eyes adjust to the darkness to view.

-Get away from city lights

-Be patient

-Dress warmly!!!

-Erik

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?w
fo=mpx&storyid=19099&source=0

BACK TO THE BLOOM

I grew up in Bloomington, always thinking that DWAN was a strange name for ANYTHING, let alone a golf course. DWan, DWan, DWan, DWan, DWan. Having friends named "Dawn" it just sounds funny. Well, what a "stroke" of luck to get a chance to play this course. It's a BEAUTIFUL course, manicured by some wonderful women who really know their gardening! As a matter of fact when I was there last I made sure to compliment the "greenswoman" who I saw tending to her flowers.

The course is challenging, open, eye-pleasing, old-school. I thought I could see my Dad or Grandpa around just about any corner. But what a day my wife Michele and I had last week in the beautiful, crisp autumn sun. A day made better as Michele (the fledgling linkstress) got her first birdie ever. It was on a challenging par 4 over water and capped off with a long and winding putt.

Dwan, good to finally meet you! I'll be back as soon as I can!

I LOVE Spring - waking up after a long winter (coming back out of the cave, so to speak), enjoying the warmer weather, the longer days, the hope of all things refreshed. But my FAVORITE season has got to be fall! I love the warm, or cool, evenings (we get both and both are good for their own reasons), the late day sun, especially when passiing cloud decks make the sky more interesting, and I love just watching the world go by bathed in the late-year twilight.

I have been spending a lot of afternoons and evenings going across the street to the park by our house to practice my golfing. Now, earlier this year I was feeding the weeds that surround the playlot MANY a golf ball. I've been waiting for fall to dry out the weeds and let the tall grass fall so I could find most of those golf balls. Well, I figure the time has come, or is about to, so I've been keeping an eye on those weedbeds to see if they would surrender any of my lost golf balls. Last night, it began. With daughter Eryn hanging around the park I went into the weeds to chase a freshly lost Titleist. She followed and quickly made $2.50 as i've been promising her for months 50 cents per found golf ball ANYTIME! Here she is displaying the spoils of her hunt.

Of course, after making the 50 cents per ball (which I'm gonna have to lower to a quarter per because she leaves no weed unturned and will end up quickly breaking my bank) she went back to her favorite part of the playground - THE TIRE SWING! She had to make up for a lost summer as the city pulled it out of the park earlier this year cause it was actually RECALED. It's now fixed and they snuck it back in during the schoolday yesterday. Here she is with one of her friends - Yes, she's getting some major air!

I must say that when it comes to a nice evening I LOVE to put some miles on my sports car (Porsche 924S). Last evening was a nice one to just go "trainspotting" - LITERALLY. I love trains and stopped at the UP yard in Shakopee. Interesting thing was that I read a sign that said remote control locomotives were being used. Sure enough, as the lead units passed by I saw they were empty. Wow! You can't even wave to the engineer anymore!

 I love trains at sunset!

Hey, back to the daughters. At the State Fair this year on the last day they got tired and a bit warm so they wanted to slow things down. Taylor decided to hand out posters. Not wanting to be left out, Eryn wanted to help in her own way so I had her walk out to Dan Patch Ave. and hand out the rather slow moving  Fox9 Vikings schedules. She got pretty excited and enterprising and probably ended up passing out a couple hundred of those things - at times offering people Adrian Peterson posters on the spot (taking a little business away from Taylor).

If you read about my Wisconsin Brewery Tour trip you might remember I mentioned the Point Brewery. Outside of their building they actually have a few vines of Cascade Hops growing. MMMMMMMmmmmm - Hops!

Hey, don't forget to sign up for FOX9 Weather Text Forecasts at 25899. Just enter the word "weather". Standard text rates apply.

Later, Minnesota.

Erik

From September 24th through September 26th 1942, an early season winter storm moved through the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi River Valley, and Great Lakes.  This system produced measurable snow across much of western and southern North Dakota; northern and eastern South Dakota; Minnesota; Iowa; Wisconsin; northern half of Illinois; northeast Indiana; Upper Michigan; and northern and southwest Lower Michigan.  In many places of Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and northern Illinois, this was earliest measurable snow ever recorded.  The highest snowfall total was 9 inches at Sauk Centre.  Parts of northern Missouri saw their earliest traces of snow. 

Meteorological setup of this early season snow storm...

Prior to the storm's passage through the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi River Valley, and Great Lakes, an abnormally cool air mass resided across these regions.  High temperatures were mainly in the 30s and 40s.  This was 20 to 30 degrees below normal for late September.

A surface low pressure system moved southeast through southern Alberta and western North Dakota during the evening of September 24th and the early morning hours of September 25th.  This low then moved east southeast across southern North Dakota and northeast South Dakota during the late morning and afternoon of September 25th.  By 7:30 PM, the low was located just north of Aberdeen, South Dakota. 

During the late evening of the September 25th and early morning hours of September 26th, the surface low continued to move east southeast across southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin.  By 7:30 AM on September 26th, the surface low was located near Madison, Wisconsin. This low then began moving east northeast across southeast Wisconsin and central Lower MI during the late morning and afternoon.  By 730 PM on September 26th, the low was located just north of Georgian Bay.

What happened in the states that were affected by this storm?

North Dakota...

The heaviest snowfall recorded in September occurred  on the 25th and 26th.  It was heaviest in the central part of the state.  Many tree branches and shrubs were broken by the weight of the snow.  Threshing was seriously delayed by the wet weather.  Following the snow, a severe freeze on the 26th through 28th froze the ground to a depth of 3 inches in a few localities.  Gardens were destroyed and considerable corn and flax were damaged.  Parshall's (Mountrail County) low temperature on the morning of the 26th fell to 4 degrees.

Minnesota...

On the 25th and 26th, a destructive sleet, snow, and windstorm in west-central counties caused a loss estimated at $25,000 to overhead wire systems.  Also there was much damage to trees and shrubbery from the weight of moist snow.  The snowfall in that storm was the heaviest ever experienced so early in the season in this section of the state.  At Bird Island 8.0 inches of snow fell, and at Sauk Centre an unofficial measurement of 9.0 inches was reported.  The snow was general over the state, and new records for September snowall were established at all southern stations and at some northern stations. 

In Winona and along the river the snow melted rapidly on the pavement.  At both Lewiston and St. Charles, the snow was three inches deep on the lawns.

Storm damage also crippled wire service mounted in Minnesota through the morning hours of the 26th.

Mankato reported 2 inches of wet snow.  This downed many telephone wires, and tree branches broke under the weight of snow which brought down even more wires.

Fairmont reported crop damage to soy and lima beans.  In addition, there were many wires down.

Albert Lea reported 2 inches of snow.  This caused damage to the potato and onion crops along with much wire damage.

Austin reported 4 inches of snow.  This brought down some power and telephone lines.  Telephone service between Rochester and Minneapolis was out during the morning of the 26th.

Minneapolis and St. Paul had slippery snow-covered streets.  Several Friday night (September 25th) football games across the state were cancelled.

Iowa...

Snow fell over most of the state, but as the temperature were slightly above freezing point at the surface much of it melted as it fell.  However, in a large section of north central Iowa a considerable portion accumulated on the ground.  Four inches of snow were reported at Forest City, Mason City, and Allison.  The snow also fell more rapidly than it melted along the Missouri border with 4 inches at Millerton.  At that town it was estimated that only about half of the total fall accumulated on the ground. 
The snow bent down soybeans, making combining difficult.  Most trees still retained their summer foliage so that the snow flakes clung to the leaves instead of sifting down through the branches, especially at Forest City, Centerville, Millerton, and Mason City.  At Cresco the weight of the snow caused a large tree to fall across Highway 9 and two men from Calmar, Iowa were killed when their tuck hit the fallen trunk.  There was some damage to light and communication wires, especially in the vicinity of Estherville and Mason City.

Illinois...

Snowfall varying from a trace to three inches fell from the 25th through the 26th over much of the north and central portions of the state.  The heaviest snow was found between Monmouth and Kankakee.  Both Dwight and Kankakee received the most snow (2.5 inches) in this band.

Wisconsin...

Unprecedented snow fell on the 26th and 27th.  Traces were generally found across southeastern part and in the river valleys of southwest Wisconsin.  Meanwhile 1 to 6 inches of snow fell across the remainder of the state.  The highest snowfall totals were reported at Tomahawk (5.7 inches) and Deerskin Dam (6.3 inches).  The average snowfall for the state was 0.8 inches.  The previous highest average for September was 0.1 inches in September 1899, 1908, and 1913.

Michigan...

On the 26th and 27th, unusually early snow fell across almost all parts of the state.  Much of the snow melted as it fell.  However snowfall totalling more than 2 inches were reported at several stations in Upper Michigan and a few locations in northern lower Michigan.  The greatest accumulated snowfall occurred at Dukes (8 inches).

Indiana...

On the 25th and 26th, measurable snow fell across the northeast part of the state.  The heaviest totals was 4.0 inches in LaPorte and Wheatfield.

Local snowfall amounts from this snow storm...



                                Snowfall
Location         State            Total
--------         -----          --------
Grand Meadow       MN           5.0 inches
Medford            WI           4.5 inches
Austin             MN           4.0 inches
Neillsville        WI           4.0 inches
Spring Grove       MN           4.0 inches
Waukon             IA           3.5 inches
Mauston            WI           3.2 inches
Stanley            WI           3.2 inches
Blair              WI           3.0 inches
Lewiston           MN           3.0 inches
St Charles         MN           3.0 inches
Cresco             IA           2.5 inches
New Hampton        IA           2.5 inches
Mather             WI           2.0 inches
Reads              MN           2.0 inches
Elkader            IA           1.5 inches
Hillsboro          WI           1.5 inches
Postville          IA           1.5 inches
Fayette            IA           1.0 inches
Osage              IA           1.0 inches
Viroqua            WI           1.0 inches
Charles City       IA           0.4 inches
Rochester          MN           0.3 inches
La Crosse          WI           0.2 inches
Winona             MN           0.2 inches
Decorah            IA             Trace
Hatfield           WI             Trace
Lancaster          WI             Trace
Mondovi            WI             Trace
Oelwein            IA             Trace
Richland Center    WI             Trace
Wisconsin Dells    WI             Trace
Sparta             WI             Trace

Many people think that cold weather is solely responsible for the color change in leaves, but not so. Leaves begin to turn before we have any frosts. Change in coloring is the result of chemical processes which take place in the tree as the seasons change.

During the spring and summer a food-making process takes place in the leaves, within cells containing the pigment chlorophyll. This gives the leaf its green color. The chlorophyll absorbs energy from sunlight and uses it in transforming carbon dioxide and water to carbohydrates, such as sugars and starch.

In the fall the decrease in intensity and duration of sunlight, and the cooler temperatures cause the leaves to stop their food- making process. The chlorophyll breaks down, the green color disappears and the yellowish colors or other pigments already in the leaf become visible.

Autumn weather conditions favoring the most brilliant colors are warm sunny days and cool, but not freezing, nights. A few hard frosts can cause the leaves to wither and fall from the tree without changing color. The degree of color may also vary from tree to tree. Leaves directly exposed to the sun may turn red, while those on the shady side may be yellow. When warm, cloudy and rainy weather dominates the fall season, leaves tend to have less coloration.

In the Coulee Region, red and scarlet leaves can be found on red maple, red and black oak and sumac. Purple and burgundy can be seen on the green ash and white oak. Sugar maple is responsible for the brilliant oranges. Hickories turn a rich gold. Yellows are common for the trees native to the river floodplain, sliver maple, elm, Cottonwood and white ash, as well as on the birch and aspen of the slopes and ridgetops.

Fall color in the Coulee Region usually peaks between the 10th and 15th of October, but this can vary by a week or so either way.

For more information on why the fall colors occur, follow this link to the U.S. Forest Service internet site.

Rod Swerman - NWS La Crosse

Let’s get thru some BREAKING ERIK NEWS (okay, it’s not THAT exciting) and then we'll hit a few weather issues.

SUM-SUM-SUMMERTIME

First of all, it’s been a busy but great summer. The bugs were a little hungrier this year but hey, it’s Minnesota and we need to keep our state birds happy. June began with my drive back from Phoenix in my new (actually 1987) Porsche 924S. It was my Father’s car and thanks to his care it’s a pretty sharp little ride. I’ll be taking it with me on the road over the next few months as I make my way to give those weather talks to area schools and showing it off at car shows around the region. So, if I get a little happy on a sunny day and Tom Halden and I talk about my sweet little sports car, you’ll know of what I speak.

It was nice to meet all of you at the State Fair. Sorry about not having our newscasts live thru the Great Minnesota Get Together but with the RNC approaching we had to have all of our remote broadcasting equipment at the Excel Center so it could be cleared by the Secret Service. I suppose a hand-held (really more of a “shoulder rested”) camera could be turned into a super-soaker, or a ping-pong ball shooter. By the way, thanks for coming up to the booth to voice your compliments AND complaints (as we learn from BOTH!) and it was excellent to meet all of you SUNDAY CIRCULAR fans!!!

This summer gave me some wonderful times with my wife Michele as I introduced her to golf. We’ve been making the “rounds” all over the metro region to check out local golf courses. We’ve found a few favorites but are still hunting for more. Since Fall is my favorite time of year I REALLY look forward to golfing in the next month or so as all of that brilliant color lining the fairway can lift your spirits on even the WORST day!

My summer ended with a personal vacation. It was supposed to be a family vaca but since I had worked literally most of the mid July thru Labor Day and the kids were back in school, the wife said “take some time for yourself”. Being the good husband that I am I DIDN’T argue and set out for a week. The theme was BREWERY TOURS, and it was a good one! I’m a certified beer geek (a HopHead, really – just like our own M.A. Rosko) and an aspiring home-brewer. I’m always looking for stronger, more flavorful and complex beers than what you’ll find at the grocery store. My trip actually started off in the Quad Cities of Iowa/Illinois which is where I lived for the 13 years prior to my move back to the Twin Cities. I was in town to do some free-lance work and visit family and friends. It was odd, but VERY flattering as after a year and a half being away people still recognized and came up to me to say “Hi”, chat, and find out where I was and how things are going.

After a couple Quad City breweries, I made it to Wisconsin. I went to The New Glarus brewery in New Glarus (they make my favorite beer in the world), then on to Capital in Madison (AWESOME Biergarten) on Day one. Day two took me to Milwaukee for Sprecher Brewing (they make a wonderful Oktoberfest, plus GREAT pop for the kids) and Lake Front Brewery (which I highly recommend if ever in Milwaukee). Day three was spent at The Steven’s Point Brewery and then on to Chippewa Falls and Leinenkugel’s. Interestingly enough, I was recognized by some Quad Citians at the Leine Lodge – I thought I had done TOO MUCH sampling for a second!!! Next season I think I’ll head to the Museum of Brewing in Potosi, Wisconsin in the southwest corner of the state. By the way, if you’re looking for a great road trip, just repeat my Wisconsin trek. It was very fun – and in early September the colors of northern Wisconsin were already SPECTACULAR

Now,,, for the Weather – actually, a few things I wanted to discuss earlier this summer.

THE CAP

During severe weather we’ll mention this as being a factor in how widespread the development of thunderstorms will be. The cap is simply a layer of warm air aloft. Since thunderstorms are vertically growing, towering clouds they look for cooler air aloft to rise into as the updrafts in a thunderstorm are warm and the cooler the surrounding upper level air the better chance a storm has to rise dramatically, thus becoming stronger. So, if the cap is broken (temps in that layer of concern cool) or the storm is so strong it “breaks the cap” (is essentially pushed thru it as the lower part of the storm’s rising is like a locomotive pushing from the back of the train to make it go forward) YOU CAN GET A VERY POWERFUL THUNDERSTORM. Think of the cap as literally a bottle cap on a 2 liter bottle of pop. Shake the bottle and you get a lot of potential energy inside the pop bottle. If you never take off the cap there’s no problem. However, if you shake the bottle then remove the cap – all “pop” breaks loose, just like a thunderstorm exploding into the stratosphere leaving those below it at its mercy.

???

Forecasting weather is not always cut and dried. With times of uncertainty, and chances of things happening, what is your feeling of question marks in the forecast. Let me know. Sometimes I’m compelled to put the old “?” on the 7 day planner when on day 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 the chance of rain, let’s say, is an uncertainty. Fox policy says we SHOULDN’T use question marks cause we’re supposed to KNOW if it will rain or not. But, a few days out it’s never really black and white – especially when we’re looking at multiple forecast models whose view of the weather fours out keeps changing a bit at a time. Would it be obvious to you that there is a chance of rain if you saw it on the 4th day of our 7 day? Would you prefer something like a 20% or a 70%??? Again,,, let me know your thoughts by writing a comment below.

REVERSE HEAT INDEX (SUMMER WIND CHILL)

Did you know that on a hot day a large amount of moisture in the air (humidity) can make it feel hotter??? SURE YOU DID. We can give you an idea of how hot it feels with the Heat Index Temperature which combines the effect of the heat with the ability of the humidity to impair your body’s cooling process. Your body sweats to allow the sweat to evaporate off your skin – evaporation being a cooling process. When the air is too full of moisture to allow for the evaporation of your sweat the whole process backs up, heat is retained and builds in your body and you feel hotter. Now on a hot day when the humidity is low cause the air is dry, the Heat Index Temperature can actually be BELOW the real air temperature. This is because your sweat will evaporate more quickly in drier air leading to cooling MORE efficient than normal. Add a breeze on a dry summer day and that Heat Index can drop even further – sometimes ending up 5 degrees below the actual air temperature.

Now, as we get ready for REAL wind chills to arrive in Minnesota over the next few months, keep in mind that you can always comment on my blog, and feel free to e-mail me weather questions about ANYTHING. Weather, TV, whatever you’re curious about. If I can answer it I will. If not, I’ll find someone who can.

From Cloud9,

Erik

Ben from North Branch sports this custom made Fox9 T-shirt. Ben says "Fox Rocks"! I say BEN ROCKS!!!

ALL GROWED UP AT 21

On the 13th of this month I will celebrate 21 years of TV Weathercasting. Yep. It all started at a 500,000 watt tv station in Phoenix. While still going to Arizona State University I got a break and was asked to fill in on the morning show at KPNX Channel 12 for a couple days and I was off to the races - well, just one - THE RAT RACE!

I was soft-spoken, shy, all dressed up in my little weatherman's suit and telling Phoenix that the day would be hot and sunny! Sounds tough, huh?

In those 21years I've done a lot of cool things (Flown a Navy Blue Angel and an Air Force Thunderbird - One of the handful that have done both) and scene many wild things (boogie danced with Miss America) and met all kinds of wild people (Ted Nugent comes to mind). One of the nice ones I've met works in Des Moines.

His name is Kurtis Gertz and he's a meteorologist at KCCI who's making the rounds on the internet, lately, for something that happened to him at the Iowa State Fair involving a snake and his shorts (self restraint is getting the best of me, here). Here's the link:

http://www.kcci.com/video/17155809/index.htmlp>

Kurtis and I first met early in my career. We were both in Dubuque, Iowa being interviewed for a main weather job. He got the job cause he was jobless at the time. I ended up working in the Quad Cities (Davenport, Iowa) a few years later only to find that He was there, too, having moved on from Dubuque.

Well, enjoy the video. I'll enjoy my 21st anniversary of TV weathercasting. If anything "wild" happens I'll blog about it,,, or maybe I won't.

Blue skies and warm breezes,

Erik

During the first hours after any plane crash speculation is the beast that rules. We did have our share of strong to severe weather yesterday at and near the crash site. Whatever really did cause the plane to crash in Owatonna won't even be close to be revealed for quite some time, but knowing what I know about aviation and weather I wish to express some thoughts that might make what was quickly jumped on as the "obvious" cause a little less culprit.

THE STORMS

As I was reporting live from Cologne yesterday morning on the storm heading through south central Minnesota it was evident that no part of the storm was "falling apart". A clear long-lived bow echo was showing up on radar. This formation has the name of "derecho" and is an area of straight line winds that can sustain itself for hours and move through multiple states causeing a narrow corridor of intense damage that can stretch for hundreds of miles. As the storms approached Owatonna around 8:30 the wind gauge at the airport was registering increasing winds ahead of the storm's arrival. Here is a timeline of the storm passed between Medford and Owatonna.

8:30: 63 mph winds/rain increasing quickly

8:38: 72 mph winds/very heavy rain

8:48: 40 mph winds/moderate rain

8:51: 48 mph wind/moderate wind

9:30: (Crash Time) 5-10 mph wind/light rain - NO WARNINGS IN EFFECT - storm had passed

At crash time, witnesses at the airport indicated that the weather had shown a marked improvement. In the sense that they could see the plane as it tried rising again near the end of the runway (nearly a mile away) you'd have to think that the visibility was good, too. Bottom line, even though some reporters said that just "minutes" before the crash the wind gusted to 72 miles per hour, there was actually nearly an hour of separation between that gust and the actual crash. Of course, even late last evening the last national reports about the crash I heard were all mentioning the crash and severe weather in the area in the same breath/sentence - not mentioning that the worst weather was far away at the actual crash time.

THE PLANE

The jet was a Raytheon/Hawker 800. This is the modern version of a Hawker-Siddeley 125 - the world's best selling mid-size corporate jet that started flying back in the 1960s. Something I had to relay to our news staff in the first couple hours after the crash was that this plane was NOT a "Learjet". "Learjet" is a specific brand of corporate jets, not an all-inclusive term for that type of aircraft.

What needs to be said about this plane is that it is no Cessna 152, or Piper Cherokee. It's not a small, lightweight plane that can get overly buffeted by a 30-40 mile per hour wind - if it was it wouldn't ever have been certified. It's a sleek, stable knife-edge type of speedster that can slice its way through many types of bad weather. And the plane is equipped with radars nearly as powerful as TITAN 3D. The weather present at the time the plane arrived in Owatonna would hardly have caused it's flight any trouble.

THE PILOTS

I'm sorry for the loss of these two men and I wish their families the best as they recover from the shock and try to move on. Again, it's far too early to speculate as to any "pilot error" that might have brought the plane down. In terms of the pilots and the weather perspective, you have to realize that to get to the point of being trusted with a multi-million dollar jet like the RH 800 you have to have plenty of flying experience and certain qualifications. One of the basic qualifications of being a professional pilot is to respect the weather! Had the weather been as "severe" as some news outlets continue to say it was, these guys would have been no where near Owatonna, opting to circle at above storm altitude until a landing was feasable or touching down at another field out of harms way. Had the much calmer weather at the time of the actual crash thrown the flight crew any curves it appears that it would have been well within their capacity to handle.

THE AIRPORT

The airport in Owatonna is known as "uncontrolled". Now, all that means is that there is no manned control tower. DO NOT let that title have you believe that the airport is OUT OF CONTROL!!! As a matter of fact, most landing strips, small airports in the United States if not the world are "uncontrolled". What that means is that there are many regulations and protocols in place for flying in and out of these airports based mostly on radio contact with other traffic. If the philosophy of an "uncontrolled" airport was flawed, we would have accidents everyday - but we don't! The fact that the airport was "uncontrolled" most likely had nothing to do with this crash. What I really wanted to mention (again, sticking to the weather perspective) was that this airport DOES have an on site weatehr observation station that was essentially telling the pilots that the weather was just fine prior to the crash for them to attempt a landing with little concern for weather conditions.

MY THOUGHTS ON THE CAUSE

I realize that nothing can be ruled out at this point as a possible cause of the crash. Personnally, I feel that weather should get the least blame BASED ON WHAT I KNOW. As one airport mechanic aptly pointed out in a Fox 9 interview it could have been pilot error, an issue with the plane or a timing issue (not having sufficient runway left/time to accellerate after aborting the landing while attempting to go around and try again).

In a nutshell,

-The strongest part of the storm had passed

-The plane made it to the runway for its landing attempt just fine

-There was no sign of any stray post storm lightning

-The wind was not strong enough on the surface to suspect a shear issue

However, there is something that I thought of when I found out that part of the plane actually collided with a bank of runway lights after getting past the runway. The rain that fell on the airport during the storm was heavy AND intense. It piled up quickly. One thing anyone who drives a car knows is how slick a road can be in the first 15 minutes or so after a heavy storm. This is because accumulated dirt and oils on the road surface allow the water to puddle, and until passing tires essentially "squeegee" off the surface it remains slick as hydroplaning and slippage become issues. Perhaps this runway was still wet to the point where the planes tires (essentially flat-surfaced with parallel groves) were not able to get the traction needed for proper braking or they were simply hydroplaning. This is not a very busy airport and any water on the runway could stay there for a long time - especially in the humid environment after the storm. Could this have been the cause? Of course, it would be indirect but the weather could be blamed in this instance. I did finally hear mention of possible hydroplaning late last night on a local newscast which made me think I might be on to something. This would fit the given scenario. The plane comes down, maybe a little late on the runway. There's limited braking ability or some slipping due to hydroplaning. The crew decides to try another landing. By this time there isn't enough runway left to get the needed lift. Flaps are down, air brakes are up, and by the time the air brakes go back down (if the RH 800 is even equipped with them) there is'nt enough room to gain the speed needed to turn the flaps from a source of drag to a source of lift. As the plane struggles to get lift it gains a few feet of altitude but not in time to clear the runway lights that it clips causing the damage and jolt that sends the plane back down into the cornfield.

Of course, that's just a theory and any possible cause won't be determined until after a lengthy NTSB investigation. They have recovered the "black boxes" - actually orange so they can more easily be found in aircraft wreckage. The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) are now in Washingtion D.C. where it is hoped they can provide clues to the plane's demise.

We'll keep you informed on Fox9, and at MyFox9.Com. And when the official NTSB report is issued, I'll try to provide a link here.

And, there is no shortage of museums in the Twin Cities, but one that caught my attention AND the attention of my youngest daughter Eryn was the Minnesota Air National Gaurd Museum.

You see, my daughter and I are BIG aviation buffs. We headed to the museum a few weekends ago and were pleasantly suprised by WWII fighters like a P-51 Mustang to an F-16 recently based in Duluth.

The planes on display at the museum (located at the MSP airport) are full of history. Pick an era of military aviation and there are either full planes or parts of planes that you can see, and in some cases touch, or board. A few years ago the museum was the home of an SR-71 Blackbird that might be back when the proposed museum expansion is complete. Volunteers, some of them former pilots of the planes on display,  can fill your ears with all kinds of stories. On some days, you can get inside the planes and the kids can sit in the cockpits - total photo op!!!

My favorites include the C-97 (Boeing Stratocruiser) which was one of my favorite "big" planes when I was a kid. To actually go on board and sit at the controls of a plane that I'd only seen pictures of was really neat. That F-16 brought back some fine memories, too. A few years ago I spent a day with the Air Force Thunderbirds and got to fly in, AND fly "Thunderbird 7", the two seat back up plane that  makes it to all the air shows that the T-Bird go to each year.

The museum is always looking for volunteers. The best way to convince yourself to help is to just show up. Be ready for a full MP check of your car at the gate, though. You WILL be on a military instalation.

For more info go to: http://www.mnangmuseum.org/index.html

Happy Landings,
Erik

A NEW BROOM SWEEPS CLEAN!!!

I LOVE Minnesota summer cold fronts - they are like a new broom sweeping out the old air mass and bringing in a fresh one. A front has just passes by on this early Wednesday morning. After a mild and humid start, the winds have picked up from the north and the dew points have dropped. Brings to mind a children's book by Dennis Feltgen. Do you remember him. He worked at KSTP back in the 70s thru early 80s. He now works for the National Weather Service in Miami. He wrote a book called "Smile when the Dew Point Drops" and there couldn't be more truth surrounding that command. Here's a quick scale on Dew Points and comfort.

dp 40s = Very Comfortable

      50s = Still Comfortable

      60s = Muggy

     65+ = Tropical

     70+ = Oppressive

The Dew Point is expressed as a temperature - the temperature at which the air becomes saturated. So, the higher the Dew Point, the more moist and humid feeling the air. Relative Humidity is actually a bad scale for measuring moisture discomfort because it can change during the day - high in the cool hours of the morning, lower in the warm hours of the afternoon. The Dew Point is usually steady during the day - and if it does change, like today, if it heads down you can rest assured that as Dennis Feltgen commands you can go ahead and smile because, at least on a summer day, the air will feel much more comfortable. So, as I sit and write this and the front has passed bringing in drier air, the Dew Point went from the mid 60s to near 50 - a GREAT way to enjoy 80 degree warmth!

ON THE LINKS

Wow, the other morning "MR. SMOOTH" Tom Halden and I were tearing up the links at Inver Woods in Inver Grove Heights in the first few hours after sunrise. Can I just say that THE BUGS ARE BACK. I remember being back last year for my first Minnesota summer in 25 years wondering what happened to the bugs? Needless to say, last year was an easy one in terms of the bug problem. But, this year is a whole new problem. I heard that the bugs were back, and as of about 6:30 to 7 pm each evening you can start to feel them taking free shots at your flesh. Well, that morning on the course was not much fun thanks to the fact that Inver Woods is a mix of woods and swamps (but, let me say this - it's a marvelous course that is kept in pristine condition and is an 18 hole'r that would challenge ANYONE. Apart from the bugs A LOT of fun). From the first tee Tom and I fell victim to hundreds of swarming flesheaters that would attack fast, undectectably, and leave my legs and arms finely pierced. The only reason I knew had been bitten was from finding little balls of dried blood on my skin. Unpleasant? YES!!! Especially when in the tee box setting up for a drive or trying to putt. Maybe this is why I really enjoy Fall golf! Oh,,, so what about my score? Score? Score? You don't need my stinkin' score!!! And that's pretty much what it was - a "stinking" score. Ahh, but more practice is in my future - and that's not all bad - it IS golf, ya know!

CRAZY, HAZY SKIES

Did you notice a bit of a muted sunrise the last few mornings? Wildfires in Sasketchewan are producing enough sky-filling smoke to haze up our atmosphere, helping to create a more reddish-orange solar disk (sun) and a more diffuse light around sunrise. If the evening skies are clear, you'll notice a little more dramatic sunset as well.

Til next time,

Erik